Vietnam Economic Growth Report 2025

Executive Summary

Vietnam's economy continues to demonstrate robust growth momentum in 2025, with GDP expanding 7.96 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the same quarter of the previous year. Vietnam's GDP hit 7.52% growth in H1 2025, the highest first-half performance since 2011, led by industry and services. The first half of 2025 recorded growth of 7.52%, marking the highest mid-year growth rate since 2011, driven by strong performance in services and manufacturing sectors, despite global trade tensions and US tariffs.

Key Economic Indicators 2025

1. GDP Growth Performance

Actual Results:

  • Q1 2025: 6.9% year-on-year growth in the first quarter
  • Q2 2025: 7.96% (year-on-year)
  • First Half 2025: 7.52%

2025 GDP Growth Forecasts:

  • World Bank: 5.8%
  • Asian Development Bank (ADB): 6.6% (down from earlier 6.3% forecast)
  • IMF: 5.2%
  • Government Target: 8.3–8.5 percent

2. Inflation Rate

2025 Inflation Trends:

  • May 2025: 3.24%
  • June 2025: 3.57% (highest since beginning of year)
  • IMF Forecast for 2025: 2.9%
  • ADB Forecast for 2025: 4.0%

Inflation remains well-controlled within safe parameters and manageable target range of 3-4.5%.

3. Unemployment Rate

Q1 2025: 2.20% (down from 2.22% in Q4 2024)

Unemployment continues at historically low levels, reflecting a stable labor market.

4. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

First 5 months of 2025:

  • Registered Capital: $18.4 billion (up 51% year-on-year)
  • Disbursed Capital: $8.9 billion

First Half 2025:

  • Total FDI: US$21.51 billion, marking a 32.6 percent year-on-year increase

FDI shows strong positive momentum, reflecting foreign investor confidence in Vietnam's economic prospects.

Sectoral Analysis

Primary Growth Drivers

  1. Services Sector: Major contributor to GDP growth
  2. Manufacturing Sector: Maintains recovery and development trajectory
  3. Export Industries: Continue as economic backbone
  4. Banking Sector: Projected to experience a 17% increase in earnings in 2025, driven by a 15% growth in system-wide credit

Retail Performance

For the first quarter of 2025, retail sales reached 1.708 quadrillion VND (US$66.83 billion), reflecting a 9.9% year-on-year growth.

Challenges and Risk Factors

  1. Global Trade Tensions: Impact on export activities
  2. US Tariff Policies: Pressure on export-oriented businesses
  3. Geopolitical Instability: Increased business uncertainty
  4. FDI Overdependence: Experts warn of inflation and FDI overdependence
  5. Macroeconomic Stability: Growth must not come at the expense of macroeconomic stability, rising public debt, or surging inflation

Economic Outlook and Projections

Near-term Prospects (2025)

Vietnam's economy started 2025 strongly, with 6.9% year-on-year growth in the first quarter. However, the outlook is more challenging amid global trade tensions and high uncertainty. Vietnam's economy is expected to maintain solid growth despite global uncertainties. The government's target of 8.3-8.5% appears ambitious given international forecasts, but strong domestic fundamentals provide support.

Key Supporting Factors

  1. Robust FDI inflows: Indicating continued investor confidence
  2. Low unemployment: Supporting domestic consumption
  3. Controlled inflation: Maintaining purchasing power
  4. Export competitiveness: Despite trade challenges
  5. Parliamentary Support: Vietnam's parliament has raised the country's GDP growth target for 2025 from 6.5% to 7% to at least 8%

Risk Mitigation Strategies

The Vietnamese government continues to implement policies to:

  1. Diversify export markets
  2. Strengthen domestic demand
  3. Enhance economic resilience
  4. Maintain macroeconomic stability
  5. Provide room for greater support by fiscal policy to cushion the impact of global shocks if needed

Sources and Citations

  1. Trading Economics - Vietnam GDP Annual Growth Rate https://tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/gdp-growth-annual
  2. International Monetary Fund - Vietnam Country Profile https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/VNM
  3. World Economics - Vietnam GDP Estimates https://www.worldeconomics.com/GDP/Vietnam.gdp
  4. Government of Vietnam - General Statistics Office https://www.gso.gov.vn/en/
  5. Wikipedia - Economy of Vietnam https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Vietnam
  6. IMF - Vietnam and the IMF https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/VNM
  7. FocusEconomics - Vietnam Economic Indicators https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/vietnam
  8. National Statistics Office of Vietnam - Economic Reports https://www.gso.gov.vn/en/data-and-statistics/
  9. VietnamNet - Economic News and Analysis https://vietnamnet.vn/
  10. IMF - Article IV Mission Reports https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR
  11. Vietnam Briefing - Economic Analysis https://www.vietnam-briefing.com/
  12. Vietnam Investment Review - FDI Statistics https://vir.com.vn/
  13. Trading Economics - Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment https://tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/foreign-direct-investment
  14. White & Case - Regional Economic Outlook https://www.whitecase.com/
  15. Vietnam Economic Times https://vneconomictimes.com/
  16. Asian Development Bank - Vietnam Country Partnership https://www.adb.org/countries/viet-nam/main
  17. Ministry of Planning and Investment - Vietnam https://www.mpi.gov.vn/en/